Politics

Will A Weak Donald Trump Defeat An Even Weaker Joe Biden?

Over the 17 years I have run this tiny blog, I have been a doomer. It isn’t some outlier opinion. I knew when I started that I would be documenting the hell that is the 21st Century.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are confirmed for their 2020 rematch. The presidential campaign, now underway, will probably be the worst in US history. This campaign is already the longest. It started in 2022 when Trump announced. Yeah.

In many ways, I wish this was just like the 1956 rematch between Ike and Stevenson. Eisenhower cruised to victory. Stability and conformity prevailed. But these are not stable times. Joe Biden should be leading Trump by 10 points. Instead, he and Trump are tied in most polls.

Biden stuck in a statistical tie with Trump is the result of a lot of poor strategy and performance by his White House. Biden has not interacted with the public. He hasn’t released videos on YouTube. It’s obvious he doesn’t write his own Tweets, although I suspect he approves them.

The refrain of this post is quite simple. Biden and the nation are in grave danger because he’s tied with Trump when he should be 10 points ahead. I will be repeating variations of this a couple of times. I apologize in advance.

As of today, both the BDS movement and abortion are more popular than President Biden. Poll history tells us he can't possibly win with approval numbers this low. I don't buy into 'history repeating itself like poetry' bullshit, with all the Gen-X journalists comparing 1968 to 2024 (I am also a proud Xer, born in '73). But this summer looks like a looming disaster for Joe and the Democrats. They made it clear that the US must prop-up Israel forever, no matter how small the benefits to the American people and no matter how many times young Americans question that policy. The Democrats have also made it clear that while they welcome Republicans and anti-abortionists to their big tent, they have zero tolerance for critics of Israel.

Joe Biden should be leading Donald Trump by 10 points. He’s not. Why?

It’s because Biden has bled too much support. All incumbent presidents lose voters between their election and re-election. We can call that a haircut (the banking term). But Joe Biden has lost significant support among key demographics. We’re talking double-digit drops with Black men, Hispanics, Asians, and voters under the age of 40. All of those drops explain why Joe Biden’s lead in New York State has dropped from 20 points to just 10. Biden will easily win New York State. But a 10 point drop in a Democratic-majority state spells big trouble for states with smaller differences in registered voters.

These drops in support are going to cost Biden key swing states. Take Georgia, for example. Voter suppression and lack of enthusiasm for Biden has swung Georgia firmly back into Trump’s column. In Arizona, Democrats outnumber Republicans, and yet Democratic Senate candidate Reuben Gallego is leading in the polls while Trump is leading Biden in Arizona. Michigan is slipping away. Incredibly, so is Nevada, again, where Democrats outnumber Republicans. My current (and very pessimistic) electoral map looks like this:

Biden should be the one with 280 electoral votes. Biden should be 10 points up in the polls. But he isn’t.

Sometimes I think Trump is actually weaker than Biden. Trump is unhinged, slower and older than he was in 2016. He is also a big loser. But Trump also has 70 million votes in the bag no matter how bad he is. Joe Biden needs to be great to get votes back. Trump just needs to be alive and he gets 70 million votes. Advantage, Trump.

The GOP autocracy is coming now, folks. Not 2028. It's happening now. Come up with a resistance and/or exile plan.

Joe Biden Constantly Tries To Be Ronald Reagan

In his years as president, Joe Biden has been trying to be like Ronald Reagan. He thinks he can maintain a centrist approach and not make any one side too upset or too happy. He’s trying to appeal to everyone and be likable. But you can’t be appealing if you don’t engage with the public.

Also, Ronald Reagan was not a centrist.

And you certainly can’t be appealing to your base if you making a public effort to court Nikki Haley voters.

I get strange looks from mainstream MSNBC Democrats when I point out that if Joe Biden was just a little more engaged with the 80 million who voted for him in 2020, he wouldn't be so thirsty for the weird, evil, anti-trump Republican vote. That vote is still vehemently anti-woman, anti-trans, anti-queer, and anti-worker.

Chris Murphy, arguably one of the nicest US Senators in the chamber, has tried to spin Joe’s centrist style as disappointing everyone by design. So while Reagan made most people feel good, Joe Biden makes most people feel down, and that was the plan.

You didn't have to make the strategic choice to be Ronald Reagan in the 2020s, Joe. You could have, um, listened to what voters under 40 want. They are the ones inheriting this environmental catastrophe. They are the ones who can't buy a house or apartment. They are the ones who are reporting that they are the saddest US generation since the Great Depression, while Americans over 60 are reporting they are richer and happier than ever before. Oh, but the men in that group are all voting for Trump! Great strategy, Joe.

Joe could have at least done a weekly video on YouTube. A little fireside chat for the kids who care. But Joe didn't even do that!

Look, we were all stressed out, doing drugs and committing suicide when Trump was dropping a dozen tweets a day (we're still committing suicide, see how young people are unhappy above). Joe could have found a happy medium between engaging with us and tweeting us to death. He chose to be the silent type. That doesn't help when you need to retain 80 million votes for the re-election.

Joe Biden might somehow win this election because Trump is so unhinged. But if I had to examine this as an objective outsider for the first time, I’d think Joe Biden is trying to lose. Intentionally.

Trump's Life Has Been Miserable For Years Now

Donald Trump is doing something never before seen in American national politics. He’s literally running for his freedom.

I think I have remarked on this blog that Donald Trump has been thriving on stress his whole adult life. Looming lawsuits, debts, financial failure and legal trouble have long been his motivation and have taken-up a lot of his time. We are all mortal. We can’t run forever. Even Trump, 8 years after first running for the White House, has slowed down. He no longer cracks jokes. He’s no longer entertaining. He has frankly become more scary since leaving office. He is more profane in his rally speeches. Thematically, he’s an angrier and darker man, and he vowing to be a ruthless and vicious leader.

And he’s alone. He’s been stuck in his worst-ever emotional state since November 2020.

His two sons still support him, but that hasn’t changed in decades. He has no loyal wife by his side. He has no best friend. George Steinbrenner is now 13 years gone. He’s down to one sibling, Elizabeth, who doesn’t have a public profile.

He almost didn't pause for his last living brother, Robert. He said goodbye to his brother in a hospital room and was playing golf at Bedminster the next morning as Robert passed away. He then abused his office to host his brother’s funeral at the White House - the first since JFK’s nearly 57 years before. His daughter is unofficially estranged. His son-in law is his handler and unofficial campaign chief. He is unofficially separated from his wife. He's alone. And he's at his most dangerous, without a check or guardrail in sight. This is how it has been for decades. No one has ever stopped Trump.

He lost the 2020 election, you may say. I will argue, that didn’t stop him. As the man would say, “you see what’s happening.”

The Republic Is Doomed

This week has me convinced that Trump is going to win in 406 days. How do I know? Our news media. They reported a surge of migrants crossing the southern border, but didn't point out that the vast majority of them were captured by CBP. Today they are describing Trump's speech in a non-union parts factory as a visit to striking UAW workers. Trump's behavior and past rape is not being covered. His age is not being mentioned. Fascism is coming. There haven’t been moderate Republicans since the Obama administration. Anyone who votes for Donald Trump is a bloodthirsty fascist.

And if, by some miracle, Trump loses, we’re still doomed. 2024 will signal to the world that American democracy no longer functions.

We have already crossed the Rubicon on this. There was no peaceful transfer of power in 2021. There probably won’t be a peaceful transfer of power in 2025.

It’s amazing how some smart people have come around on this. In October 2020, Trump didn’t meet the definition of a fascist. Today he meets and exceeds them. As Trump calls for the executions of people, all he’s lacking now is a military uniform. It’s a good thing he despises the military. He’s just a fascist with a poorer fashion taste. Most fascist dictators put on the dress uniform and medals and call it a day. Trump is happy with his dumb fucking red tie down to his scrotum.

It's The 2020s: Time For Progressives To Go On The Offensive

This is part two of a quick two-part post. It’s about the short term political future of the US in the turbulent, depressing 2020s.

I’m going to keep this brief, as books have been written about how the left should fight back against states pulling right. The solution is to go left. Pull back left. Do not ever surrender.

Okay, but how? While never easy, the strategy is to cut off Democrats that are furthest to the right. If progressives had their way. Democrats like Richie Torres, Henry Cuellar, Adriano Espaillat and Ed Case would be upset by progressives. The needle for the Democratic caucus would edge left, in-step with the culture. The Democratic policymakers who don’t care about women’s rights, or the environmental catastrophe or freedom-destroying red states would be purged from the party.

Locally, progressives need to pull left. Codify abortion rights. Get those marijuana decriminalization laws passed. Raise the state minimum wage. Tax the rich a little more. Make your good state better.

Run for office. Policies will not write themselves. We need progressives to win seats, no matter how minor. Get that school board chair. Get on the city council. Oust that cranky old mayor. Quit your job and run for office. You job sucks anyway and you can probably go back to the private workforce if you have a decent political career.

Policies will beat back the Right. Pointing out their hypocrisy does not work. Shaming them does not work. They don’t give a shit about your feelings, your opinions or your tweets. Get into office and get to work on policy.

Outsmart them. And out-policy them in the halls of government.

They are the minority party. We are the majority party. Let’s act like it.

GOP: To Hell With The Children

I am an old Gen-Xer. I remember when the GOP was all about The Children ⟨™⟩. It was a winning stroke of GOP marketing. They were the party that was all about prosecuting bad guys and keeping children safe. Whitney Houston unwittingly gave them an anthem at the peak of the Reagan era. The political worship of children had reached a peak.

Well, now the GOP is all about terrorizing children. Just look to Donald Trump for an example. He wants gory, televised Federal executions, which he thinks will frighten children enough to prevent them for committing crimes.

The GOP has not cared about the actual welfare of children for over a century. So childhood poverty, malnutrition and the slow destruction of public schools is not their concern. Well actually, bleeding public schools dry and replacing them with for-profit charter schools is one of their goals. Children are valuable to the GOP if there’s money to be made.

More recently, the GOP has declared war on transgender children and transgender healthcare. They have gone after student athletes, student restrooms, course and curriculum content and the teachers and their unions.

More Thoughts On Biden's Stunning (And Infuriating) Victory

As I wrote a few hours ago, I have mixed feelings. First, I harbor a lot of resentment at party elites. Yes, they were correct. But if you think it through, the path to defeat Trump was always to rebuild the "blue wall" from Minnesota to New Jersey. But party elites decided to let the nomination battle play out organically until southern leaders decided to hit the override button and rescue Biden’s campaign. They decided that only Biden can rebuild that wall. They were correct, fine. But I will always have rude words for Jim Clyburn. I will never understand why party leaders in South Carolina and Georgia have to be at the helm when we might never win those states again in my lifetime.

Same for Charles Schumer, who failed to convert the all-time voter turnout record for Biden into at least a tied Senate. He has to step down as minority leader, and finally some of his fellow senators agree.

I am furious at how Trump’s projection sometimes worked. Often, the public and media would see through it. But in the case of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans in Dade and Broward counties, it was a brilliant cynical move. Donald Trump, a man who sees himself as an authoritarian and would love to declare himself president for life if given the opportunity, was able to convince hundreds of thousands of hispanics in Florida that Biden was too similar to Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez. Oh yeah, he is just like them. And that worked. A rare Trump projection that worked right where and when he needed it to work. Bad guys only need to get it right once. We good guys need to block them at every attempt. We failed to block this tactic in south Florida. Spanish language radio and social media in Florida is now an arm of the Republican party, much as it was in the 1980s.

The DNC feared that Bernie Sanders would lose Florida because he would be called a socialist in Miami. However, they failed to protect Joe Biden from the same fate. Pete Buttigieg is a little corporate shit, but he was correct when he said that the GOP would label any Democratic nominee or policy as “socialist.”

But what makes me mad and sad most of all is what the Democrats -as weak and as useless as they are- cannot control. Trump became more popular since 2017. When Charlottesville happened, I and many others thought that Trump just saw himself as president of the 63 Million people who voted for him. We figured some of his voters would die before 2020, and some new, teenage voters would vote with their parents. We thought those should cancel each other out, and Trump ought to to match his 63 Million vote total, but no more. He didn’t do anything to overtly court independents and Democrats to his side. He was never a positive, friendly president. He was angry and negative, which was reflected in the national mood. And of course, he did nothing but harm and insult the 21 states that Clinton won. But this week, Trump got 4 million more votes. 4 fucking million! A Los Angeles of new voters. After everything that has happened. After all the insults and early morning tweets. After all the blatant racism and white nationalism. And in the middle of a pandemic and an economic depression that is ongoing. He gained in popularity. That disgusting, indecent man.

[Update, November 5: Trump now has 5 million more votes than he had in 2016!]

[Update, November 6: Trump now has 6 million more votes than he had in 2016! A Los Angles and a Houston!]

[Update, November 10: Trump now has 7 million more votes than he had in 2016! An incredible 71,469,850 votes and counting]

[Update, November 30: Trump now has over 10 million more votes than he did in 2016! A staggering, scary 74,077,537 votes and still counting!]

And some brothers defected to Trump! A small wave of black men didn't vote at all in 2016 but voted for Trump in 2020. In fact, an estimated 1 in 3 college educated black men in Florida voted for Trump. What would Malcom X say? I know what I say. Ladies, do not give any sex to a man until there's a Federal law legalizing abortion or until Kamala Harris is president, whichever happens first. Actually, all women should make that vow. Yes, it's going to be a long wait.

I will never be comfortable with the fact that 48% of voters would rather burn down the republic than share it with women and brown people. It's been this way for decades. This is just a reminder that nothing has changed. We have made zero progress. Half the nation wants the other half dead. Try to sleep well after being reminded about that fact.

Show No Respect Nor Mercy

We left wingers have to be brutal. Never be sorry to see your opponents kill themselves. They hurt us. They shot at us. Some of them have shot us. They drove cars into us. They blew up our economy and our way of life. They put us into cages. They put us into unmarked vans. We must be brutal. This is war, god dammit.

Brad Parscale doesn’t have long to live. Once someone puts a gun to his head and threatens to kill himself, it is only a matter of time before he goes through with it.

Here’s to Brad Parscale’s upcoming suicide. I have no sympathy, no respect and no mercy. So should all people who consider themselves progressives and left wingers. It’s OK to disrespect your enemies if they threaten to kill you or are actively trying to kill you. This is war.