Donald J. Trump

Will A Weak Donald Trump Defeat An Even Weaker Joe Biden?

Over the 17 years I have run this tiny blog, I have been a doomer. It isn’t some outlier opinion. I knew when I started that I would be documenting the hell that is the 21st Century.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are confirmed for their 2020 rematch. The presidential campaign, now underway, will probably be the worst in US history. This campaign is already the longest. It started in 2022 when Trump announced. Yeah.

In many ways, I wish this was just like the 1956 rematch between Ike and Stevenson. Eisenhower cruised to victory. Stability and conformity prevailed. But these are not stable times. Joe Biden should be leading Trump by 10 points. Instead, he and Trump are tied in most polls.

Biden stuck in a statistical tie with Trump is the result of a lot of poor strategy and performance by his White House. Biden has not interacted with the public. He hasn’t released videos on YouTube. It’s obvious he doesn’t write his own Tweets, although I suspect he approves them.

The refrain of this post is quite simple. Biden and the nation are in grave danger because he’s tied with Trump when he should be 10 points ahead. I will be repeating variations of this a couple of times. I apologize in advance.

As of today, both the BDS movement and abortion are more popular than President Biden. Poll history tells us he can't possibly win with approval numbers this low. I don't buy into 'history repeating itself like poetry' bullshit, with all the Gen-X journalists comparing 1968 to 2024 (I am also a proud Xer, born in '73). But this summer looks like a looming disaster for Joe and the Democrats. They made it clear that the US must prop-up Israel forever, no matter how small the benefits to the American people and no matter how many times young Americans question that policy. The Democrats have also made it clear that while they welcome Republicans and anti-abortionists to their big tent, they have zero tolerance for critics of Israel.

Joe Biden should be leading Donald Trump by 10 points. He’s not. Why?

It’s because Biden has bled too much support. All incumbent presidents lose voters between their election and re-election. We can call that a haircut (the banking term). But Joe Biden has lost significant support among key demographics. We’re talking double-digit drops with Black men, Hispanics, Asians, and voters under the age of 40. All of those drops explain why Joe Biden’s lead in New York State has dropped from 20 points to just 10. Biden will easily win New York State. But a 10 point drop in a Democratic-majority state spells big trouble for states with smaller differences in registered voters.

These drops in support are going to cost Biden key swing states. Take Georgia, for example. Voter suppression and lack of enthusiasm for Biden has swung Georgia firmly back into Trump’s column. In Arizona, Democrats outnumber Republicans, and yet Democratic Senate candidate Reuben Gallego is leading in the polls while Trump is leading Biden in Arizona. Michigan is slipping away. Incredibly, so is Nevada, again, where Democrats outnumber Republicans. My current (and very pessimistic) electoral map looks like this:

Biden should be the one with 280 electoral votes. Biden should be 10 points up in the polls. But he isn’t.

Sometimes I think Trump is actually weaker than Biden. Trump is unhinged, slower and older than he was in 2016. He is also a big loser. But Trump also has 70 million votes in the bag no matter how bad he is. Joe Biden needs to be great to get votes back. Trump just needs to be alive and he gets 70 million votes. Advantage, Trump.

The GOP autocracy is coming now, folks. Not 2028. It's happening now. Come up with a resistance and/or exile plan.

Joe Biden Constantly Tries To Be Ronald Reagan

In his years as president, Joe Biden has been trying to be like Ronald Reagan. He thinks he can maintain a centrist approach and not make any one side too upset or too happy. He’s trying to appeal to everyone and be likable. But you can’t be appealing if you don’t engage with the public.

Also, Ronald Reagan was not a centrist.

And you certainly can’t be appealing to your base if you making a public effort to court Nikki Haley voters.

I get strange looks from mainstream MSNBC Democrats when I point out that if Joe Biden was just a little more engaged with the 80 million who voted for him in 2020, he wouldn't be so thirsty for the weird, evil, anti-trump Republican vote. That vote is still vehemently anti-woman, anti-trans, anti-queer, and anti-worker.

Chris Murphy, arguably one of the nicest US Senators in the chamber, has tried to spin Joe’s centrist style as disappointing everyone by design. So while Reagan made most people feel good, Joe Biden makes most people feel down, and that was the plan.

You didn't have to make the strategic choice to be Ronald Reagan in the 2020s, Joe. You could have, um, listened to what voters under 40 want. They are the ones inheriting this environmental catastrophe. They are the ones who can't buy a house or apartment. They are the ones who are reporting that they are the saddest US generation since the Great Depression, while Americans over 60 are reporting they are richer and happier than ever before. Oh, but the men in that group are all voting for Trump! Great strategy, Joe.

Joe could have at least done a weekly video on YouTube. A little fireside chat for the kids who care. But Joe didn't even do that!

Look, we were all stressed out, doing drugs and committing suicide when Trump was dropping a dozen tweets a day (we're still committing suicide, see how young people are unhappy above). Joe could have found a happy medium between engaging with us and tweeting us to death. He chose to be the silent type. That doesn't help when you need to retain 80 million votes for the re-election.

Joe Biden might somehow win this election because Trump is so unhinged. But if I had to examine this as an objective outsider for the first time, I’d think Joe Biden is trying to lose. Intentionally.

Joe Biden Just Blew It

With a single, colossally bad statement, Joe Biden just unofficially lost the November election. Winning in November with a historically low approval rating is extremely difficult. It’s never been done! But his unwillingness to listen to anyone under the age of 40 dooms his chances. Young Democrats are asking good questions. They are asking why does the US prop-up Israel if all Israel does is keep Palestinians in ghettos. The answer from almost every elected Democrat is ‘shut the fuck up.’

It’s over for Joe. He knows it. At this point, I have to suspect he is simply throwing the election. He has my vote, of course. But he is going to lose. I can see it now.

I know when a president is finished. I saw it, sadly, with Jimmy Carter in the summer of 1980. I saw it again when George H.W. Bush had no answers for the far more charismatic Bill Clinton. I saw it again with Donald Trump, totally losing control of the world in the spring and summer of 2020. And I see it now happening to Joe Biden. He is not winning in November.

Today was the day that Joe Biden blew it. I cannot see him winning the election if he won't even address the needs of people under 40 years old. The youngs are concerned about the environmental catastrophe and they want a change in our relationship with Israel. Today Joe basically condemned them as if they did things far worse than set up tents and protest peacefully. He remembers Los Angeles 1992. He remembers Charlottesville 2017. But no. He condemned his own base of voters today. Joe -or perhaps I should say Brandon- is done.

Trump's Life Has Been Miserable For Years Now

Donald Trump is doing something never before seen in American national politics. He’s literally running for his freedom.

I think I have remarked on this blog that Donald Trump has been thriving on stress his whole adult life. Looming lawsuits, debts, financial failure and legal trouble have long been his motivation and have taken-up a lot of his time. We are all mortal. We can’t run forever. Even Trump, 8 years after first running for the White House, has slowed down. He no longer cracks jokes. He’s no longer entertaining. He has frankly become more scary since leaving office. He is more profane in his rally speeches. Thematically, he’s an angrier and darker man, and he vowing to be a ruthless and vicious leader.

And he’s alone. He’s been stuck in his worst-ever emotional state since November 2020.

His two sons still support him, but that hasn’t changed in decades. He has no loyal wife by his side. He has no best friend. George Steinbrenner is now 13 years gone. He’s down to one sibling, Elizabeth, who doesn’t have a public profile.

He almost didn't pause for his last living brother, Robert. He said goodbye to his brother in a hospital room and was playing golf at Bedminster the next morning as Robert passed away. He then abused his office to host his brother’s funeral at the White House - the first since JFK’s nearly 57 years before. His daughter is unofficially estranged. His son-in law is his handler and unofficial campaign chief. He is unofficially separated from his wife. He's alone. And he's at his most dangerous, without a check or guardrail in sight. This is how it has been for decades. No one has ever stopped Trump.

He lost the 2020 election, you may say. I will argue, that didn’t stop him. As the man would say, “you see what’s happening.”

The Republic Is Doomed

This week has me convinced that Trump is going to win in 406 days. How do I know? Our news media. They reported a surge of migrants crossing the southern border, but didn't point out that the vast majority of them were captured by CBP. Today they are describing Trump's speech in a non-union parts factory as a visit to striking UAW workers. Trump's behavior and past rape is not being covered. His age is not being mentioned. Fascism is coming. There haven’t been moderate Republicans since the Obama administration. Anyone who votes for Donald Trump is a bloodthirsty fascist.

And if, by some miracle, Trump loses, we’re still doomed. 2024 will signal to the world that American democracy no longer functions.

We have already crossed the Rubicon on this. There was no peaceful transfer of power in 2021. There probably won’t be a peaceful transfer of power in 2025.

It’s amazing how some smart people have come around on this. In October 2020, Trump didn’t meet the definition of a fascist. Today he meets and exceeds them. As Trump calls for the executions of people, all he’s lacking now is a military uniform. It’s a good thing he despises the military. He’s just a fascist with a poorer fashion taste. Most fascist dictators put on the dress uniform and medals and call it a day. Trump is happy with his dumb fucking red tie down to his scrotum.

Frederick Douglass Is (Still) Doing A Great Job!

The Belfast city council has approved a statue of key American abolitionist Frederick Douglass to be designed and installed in the city center.

Congratulations, Frederick Douglass! How's he doing, by the way? I heard Trump say a few years ago that he’s “done an amazing job and is being recognized more and more,” but I haven't heard much about him lately. It's great to see his recent accomplishments are now being recognized in the U.K.

Of course, at 201 years of age, he's probably slowing down a bit.